Airbus has revised its 20-year forecast for freighter demand, projecting a need for 2,470 freighters by 2043, slightly down from last year’s estimate of 2,510. The company anticipates the global freighter fleet will grow from 2,220 to 3,360, partly due to retaining more current aircraft—890 compared to the previous forecast of 720. According to Bob Lange, head of market analysis, new-build freighters are expected to have long service lives, with delivery demand comprising 940 new-build aircraft and 1,530 converted ones. The shift favors higher capacity freighters of 80t payload, accounting for 620 aircraft, over smaller 10-40t single-aisle models, totaling 970. Additionally, 54% of freighter deliveries are projected for replacement rather than growth, up from the previous forecast of 50.5%.

Lange notes that while only 1% of freight is transported by air, it represents 30% of freight value. Over the past 20 years, trade has grown faster than GDP, but is now converging towards GDP growth rates. The freight market is expected to more than double in the next two decades, with the express component growing at an annual rate of 4.4%, compared to general cargo’s 2.7%, increasing its share from 20% in 2023 to 25% by 2043.